国家铁路在城市交通发展及城市开发中主体作用的探讨

结合中国国情与国外经验，分析了城市轨道交通发展规律，论述国家铁路在城市交通发展与城市开发中的主体作用，认为国家铁路应充分利用既有铁路资源，积极参与城市铁路与城市及市郊一体化开发。     

Self-monitoring or reliance on media reporting: How do financial market participants process central bank news?

We study how financial market participants process news from four major central banks—the Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Federal Reserve (Fed)—using a novel survey of 195 financial market participants from around the world. Our results indicate that, first, respondents rely more on media reports of central bank events than they do on self-monitoring. The only exceptions are interest rate decisions in the respondent’s home region. In general, the Fed is watched most closely, followed by the ECB, the BoJ, and the BoE. Second, ordered probit estimations reveal that the perceived reliability of media coverage is negatively associated with degree of self-monitoring and positively related to the probability of using media reports, particularly in the case of asset managers. The perceived importance of central bank events is positively related to the degree of self-monitoring in the case of traders. Finally, portfolio managers tend to self-monitor their home central bank significantly more often than other central banks.     

Bounded interest rate feedback rules in continuous-time

This paper analyzes the dynamic consequences of interest rate feedback rules in a flexible-price model where money enters the utility function. Two alternative rules are considered based on past or predicted inflation rates. The main feature is to consider inflation rates that are selected over a bounded time horizon. We prove that if the Central Bank's forecast horizon is not too long, an active and forward-looking monetary policy is not destabilizing: the equilibrium trajectory is unique and monotonic. This is an advantage with respect to active and backward-looking policies that are shown to lead to a unique but fluctuating dynamic.     

北京、天津铁路货运枢纽整体布局构想

货运枢纽布局和路网畅通、地方经济发展息息相关。根据城市发展形势，分析北京、天津铁路货运枢纽现状，针对北京、天津货运枢纽存在的问题，结合路网客运专线布局和北京、天津两市城市定位，提出相应的整体解决方案。     

经济高质量发展阶段的中国货币调控方式转型

中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,中国货币政策调控方式应该从以货币数量调控为主转向货币价格调控为主。对货币调控方式理论、国际经验和中国间接货币调控转型的全面梳理表明,随着利率市场化的加速推进和基本完成,由于金融创新和脱媒迅猛发展,我国传统数量为主货币调控有效性日益下降,亟须转向价格型调控方式。西方国家和西方经济学有关货币数量与货币价格调控方式的争论,都是针对相对成熟和稳定的经济体系而言的,而我国仍属于转型过程中的不发达经济体,经济结构也不稳定,货币调控方式选择和转型须服从和服务于高质量发展转变,属于全新实践而且更为复杂。中国二十多年间接货币政策实践始终面临着政府过度关注经济增长和预算软约束部门、金融监管体制不健全、金融市场深度不够等因素制约,仍需深化发展金融市场微观基础、制度保障和产品功能等金融市场体系。为及时有效应对流动性冲击和利率扰动,货币价格调控下中央银行的利率决策空间和政策操作自主性也亟待提高,并在制度上予以保证。今后应在协调改革、发展和稳定关系基础上,加快各项深化改革措施,有效缓解各项约束条件,大力培育金融市场基准利率体系,推进货币价格调控方式转型,更好地促进新常态下经济金融的高质量发展。     

Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the relationship between interest rate, interest rate volatility, and banking sector development in 12 emerging market economies located around the world. For this purpose, panel data analysis was conducted using annual data from 1980 to 2014. In parallel to the financial development literature, which asserts that banking sector development, as a broad and complex concept, cannot be measured by a single indicator, this study adopts a set of measures of banking sector development. The empirical results reveal that while interest rate has a positive impact on all banking sector indicators, this relationship weakens at higher interest levels, showing a concave relationship between interest rate and banking sector development. In addition, the empirical results provide evidence that interest rate fluctuations have a negative impact on most banking sector development (BSD) indicators, suggesting that the banking sectors of emerging countries are vulnerable to interest rate risks. Furthermore, all measures of the banking sector indicators are positively affected by economic growth rates, while this association weakens at higher levels of income, confirming a nonlinear relationship. Thus, the results have important implications for policymakers in improving the banking system and promoting the economic growth of these emerging economies.     

海南省物流运输方式与经济发展动态关联性研究

基于“一带一路”建设背景,本文运用HP滤波及改进灰色关联度理论计算2010—2019年海南省各物流运输方式与地区生产总值的灰色关联度,以得到科学合理的评价结果,从整体上探究不同物流运输方式与经济发展关联性大小;同时,对“一带一路”建设全面开展前后各物流运输方式与经济发展关联度的动态演变进行分析研究,据此从运输结构优化、构建机场群命运共同体、多式联运两化协同等方面提出对策。     

Campaigning for retirement: State teacher union campaign contributions and pension generosity

Since Tullock (1972) first asked why there is so little money in U.S. politics, several studies have found evidence that political activism has the potential to yield significant returns. This study is the first to directly investigate the returns to public sector union activism by leveraging a transactions-level dataset from the National Institute on Money in Politics to estimate the relationship between teachers' union campaign contributions and the generosity of teacher pension systems. Our results show that more politically engaged teachers’ unions, as evidenced by their aggregate campaign contributions, are successful at both securing a higher level of retirement benefits and at shifting a greater burden of the financing of those benefits to the sponsoring government. Our estimates are in line with recent related studies and imply an investment return on campaign contributions of nearly 1500%.     

四川秦巴山区绿色交通网络体系构建的要素研究

根据国家发展战略要求,中国工程院启动重大咨询项目"秦巴山区绿色循环发展战略研究",绿色交通战略研究是秦巴山区发展战略的重要部分。绿色交通战略研究的核心部分之一是绿色交通网络体系的构建,提出以"能源消耗、环境污染代价最低和经济效益最大"为最优目标来构建绿色交通网络体系的基本思想;并从交通运输中的绿色要素角度考虑,通过对四川秦巴山区市县区主要区域职能分析,选取以"农副产品资源、旅游资源和区位资源"为四川秦巴山区绿色交通网络构建的基本要素,将这3种要素与交通网络体系进行了关联性分析,从定性的角度提出了当前交通网络体系所面临的问题的初步解决方案;最后以农副产品资源要素为例,构建了"能源消耗最低"为优化目标的高速公路网络系统优化模型,从定量的角度给出了绿色高速公路网络的最佳设计方案以及维护方案。     

“公共部门扩大陷阱”对历朝驿传和漕运体系崩溃的解释

中国历朝驿传和漕运体系相同的崩溃形态是受制于公共部门扩大陷阱演化规律的深层次制度问题。公共选择学之寻租理论揭示了公共部门扩大陷阱的诱致原因,即公共部门创立后,不同的公共部门之间以及公共部门与私营部门之间,始终存在着对资源的占有、控制、收益等的博弈。在支出政策选择上,政治家总是倾向于扩大规模,扩大开支,以满足持续性地维护特定群体的利益并得到其支持的目的。这种博弈过程总是很快地走向负和博弈,日益造成巨大的社会成本,并不可逆转。